How Many MMs are Left ???

[Bluerauder]

Here's an update as of 2014. Just an estimate based on an attrition model .....

Remaining MMs: 4,513 (40.8%)

Black (JPB): 3,321 (2,756 - 2003 and 565 - 2004)
Silver Birch (SB): 617 (162 - 2003 and 455 -2004)
Dark Toreador Red (DTR): 448 (all 2004 models)
Dark Blue Pearl (DBP): 127 (all 2003 300B models)

http://www.mercurymarauder.net/gallery/data/500/Marauder_Attrition_2014.jpg

[RF Overlord]

I hope that attrition model is wrong...in 10 years we've lost 60% of them???

[fireandice9008]

If it's even close to right...my car is a much rarer bird than I thought...

[Bruce Wayne]

my sale price just skyrocketed

[Bigdogjim]

Some things we will never know? Thanks Charlie we needed a starting point.

[69marquis conv]

Wow-just as I was thinking how I could use the garage space the MM is taking up for other projects.

[miamisilvermm]

I am keeping my baby! She squeaks a little sometimes, but I love her.

[FastMerc]

I thought about starting a registry, but it would take some money and I don't know if people would comply... But I hope Charlies figures are high.

[N40GL]

Sorry, Charlie. You left out one important statistic (which I added). :)

[marauderthis]

Any idea what the attrition rate is for the 1990's SS Impala?

[martyo]

What are the details on the attrition model?

[FastMerc]

Any idea what the attrition rate is for the 1990's SS Impala?
Check there website???

[Joe Walsh]

WOW!...:eek:.....That's scary to see how quickly cars get wrecked, junked and parted out.

:hmmm:

I wonder if that graph gets skewed because certain models, like our Marauders, were relatively rare to begin with...
hence more owners are aware of this rarity and take better care of their cars along with more cars getting saved-salvaged titled?

BTW: Charlie, you need to make a GM/CV graph that shows the ever increasing number of faux-rauders!

[Anthony84]

So glad I got one now finally to cherish and love forever...I wanna be like that guy in the Marauder promo DVD that bought his new in the 60s and still had it 40+ years later.

[1BadAssMarauder]

That chart is damn depressing! Hope it's the furthest from the truth.

[cer0413]

my sale price just skyrocketed
Lol same here

[lifespeed]

I wonder if that graph gets skewed because certain models, like our Marauders, were relatively rare to begin with...
hence more owners are aware of this rarity and take better care of their cars along with more cars getting saved-salvaged titled?

I would guess the attrition for our cars is does not follow the same curve as a Honda Civic. These cars get rebuilt when worn, not junked.

Still, one wonders. Can't be that many out there still.

[Jeronimojc]

Whatever the number of blacks is, you can deduct one. I wrecked my MM two hours ago.

[martyo]

What are the details on the attrition model?

Bueller? Bueller???

[MM2004]

Bueller? Bueller???

A SWAG? (Scientific Wild-Ass Guess)

:D

Mike.

[CWright]

A SWAG? (Scientific Wild-Ass Guess)

:D

Mike.



Been waiting on that! :lol:

Let's see, How does it go? :hmmm:.................... :thinker:Crickets!:P

[Bluerauder]

Let's see, How does it go? :hmmm:.................... :thinker:Crickets!:P

Good one, Chris. I see you remember. :D


A SWAG? (Scientific Wild-Ass Guess)

:D

Mike.

More of a W.A.G. (Wild Ass Guess), Mike. Minus the scientific part. Just a mathematical exercise.


What are the details on the attrition model?

I have always prefaced that these numbers were only estimates. No one knows the actual numbers and I doubt that anyone can collate the information from all the State DMVs and Insurance Companies as well as offshore information to get a better picture. My assumptions are shown below. Your assumptions may vary for whatever reason you choose …. But it will still just be an estimate. One thing for sure is that there are less than 11,052 on the road today than there were in 2003-2004. There are less today than yesterday. At some point, there will only be a handful owned by the DieHards and the Collectors. That’s just the way it goes as cars get older.

MARAUDER ATTRITION ASSUMPTIONS

The basic assumption uses a 20-year life cycle. This is typical in many military and commercial applications. At an average annual useage of 12,500 miles per year, that equates to a car with 250,000 miles. Few MMs will ever see that amount of miles even though we currently have a handful already beyond that point.

Using that 20-year starting point, I picked an initial 5% attrition. My model varies the attrition rate as the car ages by changing the rate at different points. At some point, yearly attrition begins to decline until it reaches a steady state of 2% at Year 29.

*** Years 1 to 5: 5% of remaining MMs (use of 5% based on 20 year Life Cycle)
*** Years 6 to 10: 10% of remaining MMs (2nd & 3rd generation owners, availability of parts, most out of warranty)
*** Years 11 to 15: 15% of remaining MMs (4th generation owners, unique parts discontinued, harder to repair, easily totaled out by insurance companies)
*** Years 16 to 28: Decreases 1% each year from 15% until it reaches steady state at 2% (most remaining cars are in the hands of collectors, in storage and rarely used).
*** Years 29 to XX: 2% attrition each year.

The above assumptions result in a 2014 total of 4,513 MMs remaining (40.8%). Works out to 3,044 – 2003 MMs and 1,469 – 2004 MMs. (Black – 3,320, Silver Birch – 617, DTR – 448, and DBP – 127).


ALTERNATE ASSUMPTIONS

Assuming a constant 5% attrition, the number of MMs remaining increases to 6,383 (57.8%). Works out to 4,458 – 2003 MMs and 1,924 – 2004 MMs. (Black – 4,775, Silver Birch – 834, DTR – 587, and DBP – 187).

I don't see the constant 5% as realistic; but it does put a mark on the wall as probably close to the upper end of reality. I tend to favor the graduated attrition since it recognizes age, parts availability, and the changing demographics of the drivers. Either way, we will never know for certain.

[CWright]

[QUOTE=Bluerauder;1355091]Good one, Chris. I see you remember. :D


I see things and store them away for a later date........ ;):beer:

[MMcactusflower]

WOW...i knew our MMs were getting few and far between...i have only seen one black one here in the texas hill country in the nine years we have lived here...so i guess i best be keeping my DTR (23,500 miles) for a while longer.

and another MM story we have all heard...just last week as i drove The Major to the local grocery store...one good ol' boy told me that my ride was 'absolutely gorgeous' and ten minutes later, another person asked the oft asked question, "what kind of car is that, dude?'

yep...loved it

[kirk]

Good one, Chris. I see you remember. :D



More of a W.A.G. (Wild Ass Guess), Mike. Minus the scientific part. Just a mathematical exercise.



I have always prefaced that these numbers were only estimates. No one knows the actual numbers and I doubt that anyone can collate the information from all the State DMVs and Insurance Companies as well as offshore information to get a better picture. My assumptions are shown below. Your assumptions may vary for whatever reason you choose …. But it will still just be an estimate. One thing for sure is that there are less than 11,052 on the road today than there were in 2003-2004. There are less today than yesterday. At some point, there will only be a handful owned by the DieHards and the Collectors. That’s just the way it goes as cars get older.

MARAUDER ATTRITION ASSUMPTIONS

The basic assumption uses a 20-year life cycle. This is typical in many military and commercial applications. At an average annual useage of 12,500 miles per year, that equates to a car with 250,000 miles. Few MMs will ever see that amount of miles even though we currently have a handful already beyond that point.

Using that 20-year starting point, I picked an initial 5% attrition. My model varies the attrition rate as the car ages by changing the rate at different points. At some point, yearly attrition begins to decline until it reaches a steady state of 2% at Year 29.

*** Years 1 to 5: 5% of remaining MMs (use of 5% based on 20 year Life Cycle)
*** Years 6 to 10: 10% of remaining MMs (2nd & 3rd generation owners, availability of parts, most out of warranty)
*** Years 11 to 15: 15% of remaining MMs (4th generation owners, unique parts discontinued, harder to repair, easily totaled out by insurance companies)
*** Years 16 to 28: Decreases 1% each year from 15% until it reaches steady state at 2% (most remaining cars are in the hands of collectors, in storage and rarely used).
*** Years 29 to XX: 2% attrition each year.

The above assumptions result in a 2014 total of 4,513 MMs remaining (40.8%). Works out to 3,044 – 2003 MMs and 1,469 – 2004 MMs. (Black – 3,320, Silver Birch – 617, DTR – 448, and DBP – 127).


ALTERNATE ASSUMPTIONS

Assuming a constant 5% attrition, the number of MMs remaining increases to 6,383 (57.8%). Works out to 4,458 – 2003 MMs and 1,924 – 2004 MMs. (Black – 4,775, Silver Birch – 834, DTR – 587, and DBP – 187).

I don't see the constant 5% as realistic; but it does put a mark on the wall as probably close to the upper end of reality. I tend to favor the graduated attrition since it recognizes age, parts availability, and the changing demographics of the drivers. Either way, we will never know for certain.

I love to watch the conversation every time this chart comes up.
It's a great chart Charlie.

I would think that the attrition rate would actually start higher and work down over time. There are more cars on the road to get into accidents in the early years, driven by people who may not care about them, and as they get older and there are less of them a higher percentage are in the hands of people like us who appreciate them and take care of them better, causing the attrition rate to fall over time as a percentage of all cars.

My 2 cents.

I also think 20 years is a little short. I'm hoping to get 40 or 50 out of my 2003. Already have 32 years on the 1963.

[vegasmarauder]

I think the rarity works against saving the cars. As more and more parts go obsolete, the insurance companies total them and inversely they get more expensive to repair making it cost prohibative to repair them. A salvage title car has less value so if the repair cost totaled it, then the rebuilt price would not make it worth it to repair.

I saw this in the 70's with the Shelbys. Ford discontinued the parts short of the 10-year mark and Branda had not started making reproductions so there was a period where they were orphans. They sat in backyards, wrecked or with blown motors until the value went up enough to make them worth it. I bought a 68 GT350 for $1900 in 1981 with a missing motor. Kept it for 30 years until someone offered me as much as my house for it.

I see the same direction for Marauders except a lot more are going to the wrecker than under trees and in garages. And Marauders are a bit more complex to repair/keep running than the older cars were.

I love mine and want to keep it as long as I can.

[Bluerauder]

I love to watch the conversation every time this chart comes up.
It's a great chart Charlie.

I would think that the attrition rate would actually start higher and work down over time. There are more cars on the road to get into accidents in the early years, driven by people who may not care about them, and as they get older and there are less of them a higher percentage are in the hands of people like us who appreciate them and take care of them better, causing the attrition rate to fall over time as a percentage of all cars.

My 2 cents.

I also think 20 years is a little short. I'm hoping to get 40 or 50 out of my 2003. Already have 32 years on the 1963.

Good feedback Kirk. However, don't confuse the attrition rate (%) with the attrition numbers. Even a constant rate results in less losses each year because of "stacking" percentages. This is why the curve flattens out over time. Theoretically, it will never reach zero. So you can be that 1 in 11,052.

Few cars will live past the 20-year timeframe (only about 10-20%). But there will still be some around for many years beyond that. At 40 years, I estimate about 500 left. At 50 years, about 400. Might be as many as 50-100 on the 100th anniversary .... probably in museums or collector's garages or under a cover in the back of Great Grandpa's outbuilding. So, you will have plenty opportunity for keeping yours.

Wouldn't your 1963 be at the 51 years mark rather than 32 ??

[kirk]

Wouldn't your 1963 be at the 51 years mark rather than 32 ??

I didn't buy it new, so while the age is 51, I've only owned it 32.

[Mr. Man]

Good feedback Kirk. However, don't confuse the attrition rate (%) with the attrition numbers. Even a constant rate results in less losses each year because of "stacking" percentages. This is why the curve flattens out over time. Theoretically, it will never reach zero. So you can be that 1 in 11,052.

Few cars will live past the 20-year timeframe (only about 10-20%). But there will still be some around for many years beyond that. At 40 years, I estimate about 500 left. At 50 years, about 400. Might be as many as 50-100 on the 100th anniversary .... probably in museums or collector's garages or under a cover in the back of Great Grandpa's outbuilding. So, you will have plenty opportunity for keeping yours.

Wouldn't your 1963 be at the 51 years mark rather than 32 ??I'm taking issue with this Charlie. Every Chevy SS ever made is still on the road. :rolleyes:;)

[MustangMarauder]

I do know one thing......there sure are A LOT of MM getting parted out here alone,not counting all the internet junk yard parts cars getting sc*****....kind of sad.

[PuntyMario]

If those are the numbers for Us models only, then sweet jesus what about the Canadian numbers?

[Bluerauder]

If those are the numbers for Us models only, then sweet jesus what about the Canadian numbers?

Those are total numbers. About 163 left in Canada ....

http://www.mercurymarauder.net/gallery/data/500/medium/MM_Distribution_Est_Jan_2014.J PG

[MM2004]

The number of MM's left based upon what Charlie has posted is strictly an estimate.

A guess.

Look at it this way...

Our cars are more rare than when introduced in 2003/2004.

Mike.

[lji372]

The number of MM's left based upon what Charlie has posted is strictly an estimate.

A guess.

Look at it this way...

Our cars are more rare than when introduced in 2003/2004.

Mike.

That right there^^^^^^


C'mon APRIL!!!!!!!:banana2:

[Mike D Mechanic]

WOW reading about how many might be left just made me go out and pet mine! I have had internal issues for a while now as to put her protected in a safe place until she is as rare as Betty that is in garage at work,( estimated less than 60 left) which is no fun but I like history. Or to drive the wheels off of her which is a major blast ! Put another 8 hours on Mary Jane yesterday. :bigcry:

[Motorhead350]

I can confirm one in my position.

[Brian H]

OK!!! I've still got mine after 15 yrs. and still goin strong!!! Oh, and finally have an appointment at my local FLM dealer for the LCM recall. you could just see the disappointment from not being able to rape me on Labor and parts!! hahaha..... Oh and 147K on'er. New headlights(RockAuto$60 apiece), New window motor, repaired EATC, repair seat motors,(loose wires), Intermittent wiper malfunction,(drilled 1/8th" hole in lowest point), El cheapo Shorty Headers( O they Fugley now!) Cats removed, runnin on factory turbo flo's. Oh,! and 694 of 7093 BlkW/Blk interior And if anyone is interested Motorhead350/Dominic still has his and is alive and doing well!!! hahaha

[Mr. Man]

Send your LCM to FastBlackMerc for the repair. Ford is going to hack up your wiring harness to do their fix.

[RubberCtyRauder]

OK!!! I've still got mine after 15 yrs. and still goin strong!!! Oh, and finally have an appointment at my local FLM dealer for the LCM recall. you could just see the disappointment from not being able to rape me on Labor and parts!! hahaha..... Oh and 147K on'er. New headlights(RockAuto$60 apiece), New window motor, repaired EATC, repair seat motors,(loose wires), Intermittent wiper malfunction,(drilled 1/8th" hole in lowest point), El cheapo Shorty Headers( O they Fugley now!) Cats removed, runnin on factory turbo flo's. Oh,! and 694 of 7093 BlkW/Blk interior And if anyone is interested Motorhead350/Dominic still has his and is alive and doing well!!! hahaha

Read this before taking car to dealer to hack your lcm wiring.
https://www.mercurymarauder.net/forums/showthread.php?104602-15S39-LCM-Bypass-Recall-Documented

[burt ragio]

What are the details on the attrition model?

One cup of coffee no cream or sugar and two single malt scotch.

[NitroWade]

Are these numbers standard though??

[BAD MERC]

My 2004 will be 20 years old on March 26. With a whopping 56,500 miles on the odometer I will likely never see 100K. My Eaton swap will begin in January now that I have gotten everything *cough* necessary to complete it. Years ago I would see Marauders occasionally that were well used. Bad paint. curb rash, no centercaps and tattered interior. And I would see the occasional perfect specimen and in this cases I'd always be in one of my other cars.
I still see folks take a pic of mine now and then but it rarely sees daylight. The thrill of ownership is still very high and the Hagerty collector car policy was a great choice.

I certainly hope my daughter marries a guy that appreciates it. He's gonna inherit one hell of a rare and highly loved and well documented ride.

I'd still like to have some idea how many are left. I'd guess ~2000 total. (?)

[1Marauder]

2 alive and well in NorCal. #27 of 417 in SB (the lowest number known to exist)… and VaderMM…